Percentage of the US population exposed to Covid-19...

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Percentage of the US population exposed to Covid-19...

Post by YetAnotherHobbist » Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:24 am

The question came up recently in a group I was with - what percent of the US population has been exposed to Covid-19 already?
There was a study about this, published about a month ago:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... -data-show

Their conclusion - less than 10% of the population of the US has been exposed, with regional variations to no more than 25% in the NE USA...

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Re: Percentage of the US population exposed to Covid-19...

Post by Publisher » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:54 am

At what point will it be considered endemic, and these measures that have essentially brought society to a near shutdown be considered unnecessary, or impossible to maintain?
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Re: Percentage of the US population exposed to Covid-19...

Post by wallaby » Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:38 am

Ahem.

See what I wrote up as projections back in MARCH.

viewtopic.php?f=28390&t=73332#p515211

The numbers in that spreadsheet are tracking pretty well 8 months later.
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Re: Percentage of the US population exposed to Covid-19...

Post by YetAnotherHobbist » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:09 am

Publisher wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:54 am
At what point will it be considered endemic, and these measures that have essentially brought society to a near shutdown be considered unnecessary, or impossible to maintain?
This is not an expert opinion - but I would guess it's already qualifying as endemic: we are likely to end the first year with Covid-19 at 20% of the population exposed, with maybe 2/3 of the people exposed being asymptomatic. 20% is not enough for herd immunity to kick in - all other things being equal, the second year we will have a second 20% of the population exposed, while the first 20% loses their immunity. So, unless we do something more than we do now about it, we're going to have a repeat of this year, every year.

A vaccine would help - but it seems that the first generation of vaccines may result in lower impact when one does get it, but it may not prevent people from getting it. So - not as many people in ICU, not as many dead - if everyone got the vaccine, which doesn't seem likely for another year or so, and where the percent of people who actually get it might not get above 50% (the rate for the flu vaccine). To counterbalance that, we are likely to relax the steps we're taking now - so more people affected, more people hospitalized.

I could be wrong, since I don't see lots of new hospitals being built :-p

I'm holding out for more effective treatment options for the people more significantly affected...

On the plus side - I would expect that there's evolutionary pressure for a variant of Covid-19 that has less of an impact on its host. So, a few years down the road, it might be more similar to the flu...

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Re: Percentage of the US population exposed to Covid-19...

Post by vorlon » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:41 pm

Publisher wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:54 am
At what point will it be considered endemic, and these measures that have essentially brought society to a near shutdown be considered unnecessary, or impossible to maintain?
I'd say not until we have an effective vaccine and treatments, at least to the point where it represents the same level of problem as the annual flu season. Right now, we don't even really know the full impact of this year given how many people are still trying to recover from being ill, have long term organ damage, etc. Plus we have at most a year's experience with this virus. I suspect we are from from done learning everything it can do to us.

Of course, if we had had a competent response from the Federal government, things would be much better now. Some countries treated COVID like a serious problem right away and are now able to have something close to the old normal.
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

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Re: Percentage of the US population exposed to Covid-19...

Post by wallaby » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:22 am

Sadly, while we focus on the PCR tests and virus shedding and "getting over it", the long term impact is going to take a long time to ascertain.
Couple of points:
The C19 virus can "avoid" the human immune system and hide out in the testes ... yep. It could become an STD.
While it might have flu like symptoms, it has can also effect things like the sacks that surround the heart and lungs - creating Pericarditis or Pleuritis.
New studies appear that infection can age the brain by 10 years - and if you are a 74 year old president who is barely hanging on to his mental faculties ... that could result in dementia.

Herd immunity requires 70-80% infection. That could be natural or indued via a vaccine.
Reports for the vax and natural infection are that immunity is not permanent, but starts to diminish after 5 months. So, to break the virus spread, everyone needs to be vaxed in a 2 month period to bring the infection rates way down (there will be people who dont vax - lets hope they also were masks) and from that point we need to just fight flare ups.

We are going to be living with this for a long time as it is, but there are idiots who cant see that and are trying to make this a permanent part of our lives.
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